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THE STELLER EQUATION
By Shawn Blore


Alex Waterhouse-Hayward


By Shawn Blore

Out on the back deck of the Vancouver Aquarium, human and animal eye each other. Both want something. The human wants the animal to move, to obey. The animal-a male Steller sea lion-wanta to stay where he is.

Head high, neck arched, masaive cheast thrown forward, the Steller stands as proudly as an officer on parade. Woody is his name. His trainer has just noted down his weight on a clipboatd: 165 kilograms. Woody is only two-and.a.half years old. When he reaches maturity at age eight, he'll tilt the scale at more than 1,000 kilograms, about the same as a 4x4 vehicle. Already, when he's disinclined to move, Woody can stick to the ground as if his flippers have been set in concrete.

"They get that look in the eye. You know that if you push them any further, they're going to try and put your face into the deck," says his trainer.

It's an evolutionary trait. During the mating season, mature male sea lions battle for control of territory and fertile females. Only the ones who don't budge, who can intimidate or fight off the others, get to breed. Survival of the fittest, or at least survival of the fittest genes. Woody is a modern example of a species that has survived in inhospitable climates for more.than 20 million years.

His trainer, Chris Porter, weighs some 70.odd kilograms. His kind have been on the planet a mere two million years. Porter's Success as a trainer depends on his winning these contests of will, but that doesn't diminish his admiration for the Stellers. They have pride. It's part of their appeal.

It's also why most aquariums won't touch them. The Vancouver Aquarium is one of only two facilities in North America-and one of only a few worldwide-that keep Stellers. For other aquariums, they're simply too big, too proud. The Vancouver Aquarium would likely have baulked at the suggestion of housing Stellers if it were simply for the amusement of the public, or even its education. But Woody and his five companions are here for an altogether more serious, even macabre, purpose. They're helping to solve a mystery: that of their own possible extinction.

Eumetopias jubatus, as the Steller sea lion is known scientifically, once ranged all the way round the North Pacific rim, from the top of Japan, up along the fringes of the Russian and American Aleutians, down the coasts of Alaska and B.C., and all the way to California. At their modern-day peak in the 1970s, the population numbered more than 250,000.
Then they started dying.

The decline began to get serious around 1980. When the spotter planes flew over in 1979, just over 125,000 Stellers were counted in the heart of the animal's range-the Alaska coast-line between Kiska laland in the far western Aleutians and the Kenai Peninsula just west of Pnnce-William Sound, where the Alaska coast does a right-angle bend toward the south. Ten years later, there were just over 30,000. Rookeries-barren nubs of rock in the open sea where Stellers give birth and breed-that once teemed with tens of thousands of sea lions held only a few hundred animals.

Despite this obvious cataclysm, the National Marine Fisheries Service, the American government agency responsible for the welfare of most Pacific marine mammals, was as difficult to prod into action as a stubborn male Steller. Greenpeace finally sued the agency on the Stellers' behalf in 1989, and only then did NMFS budge, issuing an emergency decree listing in 1990 listing the Steller as "threatened" under the Endangered Species Act, two categories away from "extinct". By that time, nearly 80 percent of the sea lions in the Kenai-Kiska area were gone, and the decline showed no signs of stopping. For the Stellers, prospects were bleak.

But for a 32-year-old postdoc working at a Department of Fisheries and Oceans lab in Nanaimo, things were looking up. Dr. Andrew Trites-a stoutish man, with dark, curly hair and a quick laugh, who resembles nothing so much as a well-fed Columbo-was (and is) a bit of an anomaly in the marine-biology world. Normally, people are drawn into the field by a keen interest in marine animals. Trites was different. "I certainly had no particular fascination with marine mammals as a kid," he says. "I mean, I watched Flipper like everybody else. That was about it."

Trites's first love was not animals but numbers, equations, and mathematical descriptions of the way whole populations of animals functioned in an ecosystem. "I remember in my fourth year of biology," says Trites, I read an article about the Antarctic system: someone had put together a very simple set of equations that described the basic predator/prey relationships between blue whales and kriIl. I was just fascinated." Several years later, in his own PhD thesis, which carried the somewhat literary title of The Decline and Fall of the Pribilof Fur Seal, Trites presented an exquisite mathematical explanation for the near-total disapearance of the northern fur seal.

Fascinating stuff. But in an era when most of the research money (and, hence, most of the university careers) seems to gravitate around ever-tinier but potentially profitable things like genes, chromosomes, and DNA strands, choosing population biology as a field was a questionable career move.

So for Trites, the Steller's untimely demise was serendipity itself. The Mystery of the Disappearing Sea Lion offered perhaps the perfect foil for his particular set of research skills. Large scale die-offs of marine mammals aren't exactly new. In fact, these incidents have become common enough that some environmentalists have likened marine mammals to mine canaries: their deaths provide an early warning about the presumably dire state of the planet's health. The epidemic among the seals in Europe's North Sea was typical of such incidents: the first clue that something was rotten was the bloated corpses of seals washing up on swimming beaches in Denmark (and Holland and Germany and Scotland). Not surprisingly finding the cause of such a mass exterminations is a job for a pathologist.

With the Stellers, however, not single corpse was found, even thougl through the '8Os more than 10,000 sea lions a year were disappearing from southwestern Alaska. Even more intriguing, the Stellers weren't the only creatures suffering: harbor seals, fur seals, and fish-eating seabirds such as thick-billed murres and red-legged kittiwakes were also declining. It pointed to a system-wide cause, something most easily found by someone with a penchant for analyzing whole ecosystems. E ven so, no ecosystem can be analysed witbout the data with which to make comparisons.

SCIENCE WORKS by making comparisons. Health scientists compare the life spans of smokers and non-smokers. Drug tests compare the symptoms of people who received a drug with those of people who didn't. For wildlife scientists, however, things are rarely that simple. If an animal population goes into decline, normally the only thing to compare it with is the past, the good old days when the population was healthy. That works if there is rasearch going back 50 or 100 years, but In this case there isn't. Lacking fur or ivory or sellable blubber, Stellers were never really worth hunting; as a result, they were never really worth studying. Even the most basic infortasation, like census data, has only been collected systematically since the late 195Os. Without a historical database, researching the Steller decline could have been enormously difficult.

Nature, however, contrived in this case to make comparisons relatively simple by providing two populations with radically differing fortunes. In the Aleutian Islands and the Bering Sea, nearly three-quarters of the population has disappeared, but in British Columbia and along the Alaska Panhandle, Stellers are holding their own, even increasing. Broadly speaking, solving this mystery was a matter of finding the crucial difference between these two populations. It's like playing that old Sesame Street game of "One of these things is not like the other."

In fact, all Trites needed to begin solving the case was a client, someone to hire him to do the investigation.H is employer at the time, the Department of Fisheries and Oceans, wasn't likely to ask him to take on the job. Marine mammals have never been much of a priority at DFO. Not that there aren't plenty of critters to study. The waters lapping Canada's West Coast are home to at least a dozen species of marine mammals: seals and dolphins swim, sea otters play, killer whales hunt, sea lions brawl, humpbacks and grey whales breach. It's just that DFO doesn't much care. Fish are what counts. DFO employs exactly one full-time marine-mammal biologist in all of B.C. He studies how many fish marine mammals eat. If fisha didn't need something to swim in, DFO would have dropped "Oceans" from the letterhead long ago.

Fortunately, the mystery had caught the attention of others-a group of people-whose fate was so tightly caught up with that of the Steller sea lion that they were intere sted in financing a research effort. What's more, they had pockets deep enough to do it. That group was the Alaska fishing industry. Their interest stemmed fmm a very simple fact: their presence is the most obvious difference between the two Steller populations. Very little trawl fishing goes on in southeast Alaska, where the Stellers are thriving. The western Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea, on the other hand, are the site of the largest single-species fshery on Earth.

Picture a boat the sire of a BC car ferry, with a net that could swallow the Hotel Vancouver. That's an Alaskan factory trawler. There ase no such ships in the waters of southeast Alaska, where the Stellers are thriving, but in the Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska, 65 such behemoths prowl. In 1995, they landed

1.3 million tonnes of pollock, a Pacific member of the cod family that usually makes its way to the table as fake lobster or crab. Half again as much in less-desirable species was tossed over the side as bycatch. The trawl-fishing industry generates billions of dollars every year, and the Steller sea lion could put an end to it all.

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